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lô đề hôm nay(www.84vng.com):Pound nears lowest since 1985 as new PM glow fades

Allbet登录网址2022-09-1811

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LONDON: The honeymoon is already over for Britain’s latest prime minister in the currency market.

The pound bounced as Liz Truss took over on Tuesday, yet the rally reversed as she faced scrutiny in Parliament on Wednesday.

That put the currency near the lowest since 1985, when Margaret Thatcher – who Truss sees as an inspiration – was in power.

The decline now leaves sterling on the edge of a bear market that could spur a bigger sell-off.Investors have been getting rid of sterling assets given surging inflation and the likelihood of a recession in the UK.

While Truss’ mooted plans may help households through an energy crisis, paying for them with a government spending spree risks stoking up future problems for markets.

“A change of leadership is usually pound-positive, especially when up to £130bil (RM672bil) of fresh deficit spending may be on the agenda. But the current crisis is unlike any we’ve seen in the recent past,” said Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Nomura International Plc, once nicknamed “Mr Brexit” for his prognostications on UK political twists.

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Artificially lower energy prices for consumers would reduce the pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to deliver such aggressive interest-rate rises in the near term, but that’s at the cost of the government paying “a lot more,” widening the country’s trade deficit, he argues. Truss told lawmakers there won’t be a windfall tax on energy companies to fund her plans.

“It’s a recipe for the balance of payments to continue to deteriorate, the UK’s terms of trade to worsen and with it the the pound’s value to fall,” Rochester said in a note, expecting the pound to drop to US$1.10 (RM4.95) by the end of October, and US$1.06 (RM4.77) by year-end.

The currency has already tumbled more than 15% this year. It traded down as much as 0.9% on Wednesday, nearing the US$1.14 (RM5.14) low hit during the pandemic in 2020. Below that would be the weakest since 1985, with a fall under US$1.14 putting it into bear market territory.

It’s taken a further knock from comments by BoE officials responding to Truss’ plans, with chief economist Huw Pill telling lawmakers on Wednesday that the new government’s energy moves could reduce price pressures in the short term. That backs up Rochester’s view on a need for fewer rate hikes, limiting a potential source of support for the currency.

Investor sentiment is also being tested by a potential face-off between the Truss government and the BoE over the way it conducts monetary policy, which could compromise the central bank’s long-held independence.

That’s an outlook keeping longer-term sentiment negative on the pound in options markets, with traders betting the next few months will see plenty of volatility. A gauge of swings over three months versus the dollar has hit its highest since the aftermath of the pandemic in recent days.

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